In a recent, significant development in the decades-long separatist conflict in the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region, Azerbaijan claimed complete control of the contested territory in the South Caucasus as Armenian forces agreed to a Russian proposal for a ceasefire.
As tens of thousands flee the war-torn enclave following the regional Armenian forces’ surrender, it may be useful to analyse and understand the conflict that has been the hotbed of clashes between Baku and Yerevan.
What Happened Recently?
Azerbaijan started its large-scale “antiterrorist” military offensive against Nagorno-Karabakh on 19 September after its citizens were allegedly killed by Armenian sympathisers.
Baku claimed the operations were launched in response to the death of six citizens, including two police officers, in landmine explosions.
As a part of the offensive, Azerbaijani forces seized several strategic road junctions and heights in the region, thus leading to a surrender of the separatist forces on 20 September.
Azerbaijan has launched an ‘anti-terrorist’ operation into Armenian-controlled Nagorno-Karabakh, threatening that the operation would not stop until Armenian forces surrendered. Find out more:https://t.co/FxN03alsBF#Azerbaijan #Armenia #Russia #Turkey #NagornoKarabakh
— Statecraft (@statecraftdaily) September 23, 2023
The Ceasefire
The victory of Baku’s forces was announced by President Ilham Aliyev, who said the country had restored its sovereignty “with an iron fist” in a 24-hour offensive.
Following Baku’s victory, Armenian forces laid down their weapons and announced they would be completely disarmed.
A ceasefire agreement was outlined by Azerbaijan and the Russian Defence Ministry, ensuring that Russian peacekeepers would be present in the region and separatist forces would be disarmed and disbanded.
Armenia has highlighted that Yerevan was not involved in preparing the text of the ceasefire.
The Azerbaijani Defence Ministry declared that all weapons and heavy equipment of the Armenian forces would be handed over to its army.
The Armenian side announced, “In the current situation, the actions of the international community to end the war and resolve the situation are inadequate. Considering all this, the authorities of the Republic of Artsakh accept the proposal of the command of the Russian peacekeeping contingent to cease fire.”
#WorldToday
— Geeta Mohan گیتا موہن गीता मोहन (@Geeta_Mohan) September 30, 2023
Big focus on Azerbaijan-Armenia conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh.
Azerbaijan recaptures territory.
Russian brokered ceasefire.
Massive exodus of ethnic Armenian population.#Exclusive conversation with Azerbaijan's envoy to India Ambassador Ashraf Shikhaliyev… pic.twitter.com/nWlPeSRI2Q
According to a separatist leader, from 1 January 2024, the breakaway republic and its institutions would cease to exist.
Russian President Vladimir Putin welcomed the ceasefire agreement.
What is the Conflict?
The disputed enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh is sandwiched between Armenia and Azerbaijan, which have a long-standing ethnic and territorial conflict over the area, with over 1,20,000 ethnic Armenians occupying the Lachin corridor, the only highway connecting Armenia to Nagorno-Karabakh.
While the region was internationally recognised as a part of Azerbaijan, it is inhabited mainly by ethnic Armenians.
The centuries-old tension between Christian Armenians and Turkic Muslim Azeris residing in the region further exacerbated tensions between the two countries, which became a part of the Soviet Union in the 1920s.
The First Nagorno-Karabakh War
The roots of the conflict can be traced back to the final days of the Soviet Union when the Armenian-Christian population held a referendum to break away from Shia-majority Azerbaijan.
After Nagorno-Karabakh declared its independence to unite with Armenia, a war broke out, leading to the death of over 30,000 people in the early 1990s, and displacing many more in pogroms that occurred in both countries.
The separatist fighting in the region ended in 1994, with ethnic-Armenian forces, backed by the Armenian military, occupying the territory with seven surrounding districts.
The Second Nagorno-Karabakh War
In 2020, a six-week conflict occurred in the region, with Azerbaijani forces, backed by Turkey, fighting Armenia and occupying a large part of Nagorno-Karabakh.
More than 6,000 people were killed in the 44-day war that took place.
The Russian-brokered ceasefire at the end of the conflict saw Armenia ceding large swathes of territory occupied by the country since 1990.
However, the locals retained control of the region’s biggest city, Stepanakert, and a 2,000-strong contingent of Russian peacekeepers was sent to Nagorno Karabakh.
Developments Since 2022
Evidently, tensions continued despite the 2020 ceasefire.
In December 2022, Armenia accused Azerbaijan of blocking the Lachin corridor and cutting Yerevan’s access to its ethnic population.
The blockade had continued for the past nine months, with the region experiencing a humanitarian crisis on a massive scale.
Access to food, water, health services, internet, gas, and electricity was restricted for residents of the region.
Amid severe international criticism over the blockade, Baku assured that it would lift it, but instead, the country established a checkpoint to continue the control of goods and services.
Meanwhile, Azerbaijan also claimed that ethnic Armenians were behind the illegal exploitation of natural resources in the region, thus leading to the blockade.
Thus, despite the 2020 truce agreement, the region was rife with clashes, and tensions remained high.
What Led to Baku’s Victory?
In a way, Azerbaijan achieved in a day what it had been unable to attain in the past three decades.
While Armenia has been backed by Iran, India, the US, and the EU in the conflict, Turkey, Pakistan, and Israel are seen as supporters of Azerbaijan.
A significant reason for Azerbaijan’s victory, apart from its superior military strength, seems to be the weight thrown behind Baku by Turkey, following Ankara’s quest for a more prominent role in the Caucasus region.
Moreover, Russia’s tense relationship with Armenian PM Nikol Pashniyan amid his anti-Russia stance and Armenia’s growing closeness to the West with military exercises with the US paved the path to Baku’s success.
The turning point in relations between the two countries was the lack of aid to Armenia by Russia or the Moscow-led Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO) when Azerbaijan attacked Armenian territory in 2022.
Additionally, Russia’s engagement in Ukraine also deteriorated Moscow’s presence in the region, weakening Armenia and facilitating Azerbaijan’s victory.
What Lies Ahead?
Azerbaijan’s overtake of the region allows the country to peacefully integrate Nagorno-Karabakh into its territory.
In a significant move, the country has now opened the Lachin corridor.
The conflict has triggered demands for the Armenian PM’s resignation for being unable to tackle the situation better.
Additionally, while Aliyev has promised to guarantee rights for Armenians in Karabakh and turn the region into “paradise,” the fear of an ethnic cleansing looms large.
Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev has canceled plans to attend peace talks with Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, local media reports https://t.co/fjzEWoQm83
— Bloomberg (@business) October 4, 2023
A large section of the Armenian population is believed to have fled the region, thus exacerbating the humanitarian crisis.
US Agency for International Development (USAID) chief Samantha Power announced $11.5 million in aid for the region while urging Azerbaijan to protect civilian rights in the area.
In the latest development, Aliyev has pulled out of an EU-brokered meeting with the Armenian PM scheduled in Spain in the presence of top EU officials, intending to make a peace deal between the two nations.
As tensions continue to rise in the region, people bear the harshest impact of the latest developments.
It remains to be seen how long the newly agreed upon ceasefire will last.